The economic power of the Golden Rice opposition

Vitamin A enriched rice (Golden Rice) is a cost-efficient solution that can

substantially reduce health costs. Despite Golden Rice being available since early 2000,

this rice has not been introduced in any country. Governments must perceive additional

costs that overcompensate the benefits of the technology to explain the delay in approval.

We develop a real option model including irreversibility and uncertainty about perceived

costs and arrival of new information to explain a delay in approval. The model has

been applied to the case of India. Results show the annual perceived costs have to be

at least US$199 million per year approximately for the last decade to explain the delay in

approval of the technology. This is an indicator of the economic power of the opposition

towards Golden Rice resulting in about 1.4 million life years lost over the past decade

in India.

SOURCE:  CAMBRIDGE JOURNAL